土地利用/覆盖变化的区域对比分析被国际地理学联合会LUCC工作组列为2000~2004年期间的三大研究目标之一,闽台因其区域自然背景及历史文化的相似性和经济发展时序递差性成为区域对比研究的理想对象之一。利用闽台相关统计资料对比显示,闽台耕地变化共同呈现出先增后减、时有波动、总体减少的特点,但福建耕地变动较大的时序后移,而台湾耕地减少的总趋势较缓。闽台人均耕地变化速率相当,但每一农业劳动力占有耕地数量差距甚大。在对闽台耕地变化直接因子分析的基础上,对影响耕地变化间接因子进行灰色关联分析,结果显示:农业结构调整、非农建设、灾毁和开荒等因素是引起耕地变化的直接驱动因子;人口增加及城市化水平提高、第一产业的发展共同构成闽台耕地变化的第一、二间接驱动因子;农副产品的对外贸易量对台湾耕地的影响强于福建。最后文章分析了闽台不同经济发展时期经济发展政策与土地管理法规对耕地的影响。

Comparative analysis of LUCC between different regions was considered one of the three major research topics during 2000~2004 by IGU-LUCC. Comparison of LUCC between Fujian and Taiwan could be a good case for study because of their geographical proximity and historical and cultural similarity. Fujian and Taiwan had gone through and were in different economic development phases. By using the official statistics, quantitative changes in cultivated lands of Fujian and Taiwan were analyzed. The results showed that these two provinces seemed to have the same characteristics, i.e., increasing at first and then declining, and though some fluctuations were observed, the general tendency was declining. However, the phase of rapid changes in Fujian came somewhat later in the whole process of the economic growth, as compared with that in Taiwan. Besides, the cultivated land was decreasing at much lower rate in Taiwan. They were almost the same in terms of the change rate of acreage of cultivated land per capita but differed sharply in terms of acreage of cultivated land per farm laborer. In present study, major driving forces of the changes in cultivated lands of both provinces were analyzed for Grey Relevance Degree, with the following conclusions:(1) Agricultural restructuring, non-agricultural construction, disasters and reclamation were the direct driving factors that caused the changes in cultivated land. (2) The increasing demands for better living standards, and the development of the primary industry, constituted the first and the second indirect driving factors, respectively. (3) The level of the economic development could affect the scale and the efficiency of the land uses for non-agricultural purpose. (4) Exportation of farm produce had a greater impact on the changes in cultivated land in Taiwan than in Fujian. At the end of this article, the effects of economic policies and regulations for land management on cultivated land in different economic development phases were also analyzed.

国家自然科学基金项目(40371054);福建省科技厅重大攻关项目(2003I002)。