Based on statistical data, this paper analyzed the dynamic changes of population quantity, grain yield, cropland area, cropland pressure index and land carrying index in Urumqi from 1996—2011 and forecasted their changes from 2014 to 2020. The results showed that from 1996 to 2011 population-grain-cropland system as a whole became gradually unbalanced, with overloaded population and significant cropland pressure. The cropland pressure was highest, with the cropland bearing capacity being lowest in 2003, but it was on the contrary in 1996. The forecast results showed that from 2014 to 2020 the population would continue to increase, and the grain yield fluctuation would decrease, with the cropland area and cropland per capita being going to decrease, and the cropland pressure index being going to increase, which showed the contradiction of human–grain-land would become more and more serious. The measures should be put forward to strengthen cropland protection and food security, such as, control population quantity, improve population quality, protect cropland, develop modern ecological agriculture, optimize cropland resources within the metropolitan area.