塔里木河流域生态的脆弱性和农业生产开发过程中开荒规模的绝对性使其局部地区存在较大的生态风险隐患，本文选取塔里木河流域作为研究区域，以未利用地农业生产开发生态风险为研究对象，运用AHP(层次分析法)和生态风险指数法对塔里木河流域未利用地农业生产开发过程中暴露出的土壤、水环境和社会生态风险进行评价，通过县域空间和风险源累积量响应分析得出以下结论：①拜城县、阿克苏市、乌什县、喀什市、阿拉尔市生态风险较高；低风险集中带主要有若羌-且末县、阿图什-乌恰县、皮山县、英吉沙-莎车县等。②新和县、墨玉县与洛浦县临界地带，土壤风险程度较高；库车县与新和县交界地带水环境生态风险较高，生态风险值为0.043 2；轮台县东北部与焉耆回族自治县交界处、阿瓦提县与温宿县交界处、阿图什市西南部与喀什市交界处社会生态风险较高。

Potential ecological risk exists in local area due to the ecological vulnerability and the absoluteness of unused land reclamation in agricultural development process in Tarim River Basin. This paper selected Tarim River Basin as the study area, and assessed soil, water environment and social ecological risks resulted from unused land reclamation by using the methods of AHP and ecological risk index. The following conclusions were obtained by response analysis and the cumulation of risk sources at county scale: 1) Ecological risk is higher in Baicheng, Akesu, Wushi, Kashi and Alar, while is lower mainly in the belts of Ruoqiang-Qiemo, Atushi-Wuqia, Pishan, Yengisar-Shache. 2) Soil ecological risk is higher in the critical zones of Xinhe, Moyu and Luopu, water ecological risk is higher in the boundary between Xinhe and Kuche, ecological risk value was 0.043 2, and social ecological risk is higher in the boundary between the northeast of Luntai and Yanqi, the boundary between Awati and Wensu, and the boundary between the southwest of Atux and Kashi.

U412.1

国家自然科学基金项目(71663051)资助。