The Taihu Lake basin is located in the central area of the Yangtze River Delta. Enhanced human activities has led to the degradation of ecological environment and the increase of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission. To explore the impact of land-use change on CO₂ budge, the ArcGIS software was used to analyze the CO₂ fluxes under different land use types in the Taihu Lake basin during 2000-2020. The remote sensing image data of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2020 combined with the land use transfer probability matrix were compared. The IDRISI software was used to predict the land-use changes from 2030 to 2040. CO₂ emissions in the basin were calculated by CO₂ budget coefficient estimation method. The results showed that net CO₂ emission in the Taihu Lake basin has increased year by year. CO₂ flux is different under different land use types. Among them, the constructed land contributed the most to net CO₂emission, far more than the farmland and with an increasing trend. The intensity of CO₂ emission showed a gentle trend during 2030-2040, reflecting the positive results of gradually adjusted industrial structure and controlled measures.