南通市臭氧污染与气象条件分析和预报
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X512

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江苏省青年基金项目(KQ202206)和江苏省气象局预报员专项(JSYBY201912)资助。


Analysis and Prediction of Ozone Pollution and Meteorological Conditions in Nantong
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    摘要:

    本文通过分析地处长江口北岸的南通市2014—2017年臭氧污染变化特征和气象要素以及天气形势对臭氧质量浓度的影响,归纳了高浓度臭氧出现的天气形势,使用多元逐步回归建立了不同月份臭氧质量浓度预报模型。结果表明:春、夏季臭氧质量浓度较高,冬季最小;2014—2017年臭氧超标日数呈明显增加的趋势,臭氧超标日主要出现在4—10月,夏季超标日数占55%,冬季没有出现超标情况。臭氧质量浓度变化与气象要素密切相关,与气温、日照时数呈显著正相关,与云量、相对湿度、风速呈负相关。气温高于20℃,相对湿度小于60%,日照时数大于4 h,平均低云量小于4成,地面偏南风且风速低于6 m/s,容易出现高浓度臭氧。归纳出南通市臭氧超标事件出现的6种高空天气形势,分别是副高边缘、副高内部、高空槽后、高空槽前、高空脊和低涡型。受副高影响时产生臭氧浓度超标的概率最大,高压脊形势下的臭氧平均质量浓度最高。综合考虑各气象要素,分别得到4—5月、6—8月、9—10月3个臭氧质量浓度预报方程。利用2017年资料对浓度预报方程进行检验,预报值与观测值的相关系数分别达到0.76、0.74和0.65,通过了α=0.01的显著性检验,说明利用多元逐步回归建立的臭氧预报方程具有较好的拟合效果和可预报性。后向轨迹聚类分析表明,2017年7月13—25日南通市比率最大的气流经过臭氧污染相对严重的长三角地区到达南通,有利于污染物的输送。

    Abstract:

    Through the analysis of the characteristics of ozone (O3) pollution and the meteorological influencing factors in Nantong from 2014 to 2017, a prediction model of O3 concentration in different months was established, and the related high concentration O3 synoptic situations were also summarized. The results showed that the day number of O3 pollution in Nantong was increasing obviously from 2014 to 2017. O3 concentration had a significant positive correlation with temperature, sunshine hours and other factors, but a negative correlation with relative humidity, total (low) cloud amount and wind speed. High O3concentration were likely to occur with the temperature higher than 20℃, the relative humidity less than 60%, the sunshine hours more than 4 hours, the average low cloud less than 40%, the wind speed less than 6 m/s. The synoptic systems affecting O3 pollution were classified into 6 patterns, including edge of subtropical high, interior of subtropical high, back of upper-level trough, front of upper-level trough, upper-level ridge and vortex. Considering all meteorological factors, three O3 concentration prediction equations were established respectively from April to May, June to August and September to October. Using the data of 2017 to test the prediction equation, it was found that the correlation coefficients between the predicted and the observed values were 0.76, 0.74 and 0.65 (P<0.01), respectively, indicating the good fitting effect and predictability. Cluster analysis of backward trajectory showed that the largest ratio of air flow passed through the Yangtze River Delta region with relatively serious O3 pollution, favoring the transportation of pollutants.

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张琪,彭小燕,顾沛澍,缪明榕,丁峥臻.南通市臭氧污染与气象条件分析和预报[J].土壤,2022,54(2):415-423. ZHANG Qi, PENG Xiaoyan, GU Peishu, MIAO Mingrong, DING Zhengzhen. Analysis and Prediction of Ozone Pollution and Meteorological Conditions in Nantong[J]. Soils,2022,54(2):415-423

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  • 收稿日期:2021-12-20
  • 最后修改日期:2022-02-08
  • 录用日期:2022-02-10
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-04-15
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