SHAW模型模拟积雪覆盖下土壤热过程的不确定性分析
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S152.8

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国家自然科学基金项目(52179035,51579045)和黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(YQ2019E004)资助。


Uncertainty Analysis of SHAW Model for Simulating Soil Water and Heat Transfer Under Snow Cover
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    摘要:

    为探究SHAW (Simultaneous heat and water)模型中输入参数不确定性在模拟积雪覆盖条件下土壤热过程中对输出结果造成的影响以及关键影响因素,以松嫩平原黑土区东北农业大学试验场为研究区域,运用SHAW模型模拟积雪覆盖条件下6个不同深度土层热过程动态变化情况,并结合拉丁超立方取样(Latin hypercube sampling,LHS)方法,采用标准秩逐步回归探究参数不确定性对土壤冻结深度和温度输出不确定性的影响。结果表明:SHAW模型能够反映土壤冻融规律,6个深度土层温度的模拟值与实测值平均绝对误差小于2℃,选取的参数对土壤温度的输出敏感性较弱,而初始积雪厚度对土壤冻结深度的输出起主导作用。总体而言,SHAW模型基于LHS抽样和标准秩逐步回归方法可用于模拟积雪覆盖条件下土壤热过程模拟研究。

    Abstract:

    In order to explore the influence of the uncertainty of input parameters in the SHAW (Simultaneous heat and water) model on the output results and the key influencing factors in the simulation of soil thermal process under snow cover conditions,in this study,the experiment station of Northeast Agricultural University in the black soil area of the Songnen Plain was taken as the research area,the SHAW model was used to simulate the dynamic changes of the thermal process of six soil layers with different depths under the condition of snow cover. Combined with the LHS sampling method,the standard rank stepwise regression was used to explore the effects of parameter uncertainty on soil freezing depth and temperature output uncertainty. The results show that the SHAW model can reflect the law of soil freezing and thawing,the average absolute error is less than 2 ℃ between the simulated and the measured soil temperatures at six depths,the output sensitivity of the selected parameters to soil temperature is weak,and the initial snow thickness has a significant effect on soil temperature. The output of soil freezing depth plays a leading role. Overall,the SHAW model based on LHS sampling and standard rank stepwise regression methods can be used to simulate soil thermal processes under snow cover conditions.

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王子龙,孙秋雨,李航,姜秋香. SHAW模型模拟积雪覆盖下土壤热过程的不确定性分析[J].土壤,2023,55(2):419-425. WANG Zilong, SUN Qiuyu, LI Hang, JIANG Qiuxiang. Uncertainty Analysis of SHAW Model for Simulating Soil Water and Heat Transfer Under Snow Cover[J]. Soils,2023,55(2):419-425

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  • 收稿日期:2022-05-22
  • 最后修改日期:2022-07-08
  • 录用日期:2022-07-21
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-04-20
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