基于贝叶斯最大熵的黄河三角洲土壤含盐量空间分布预测
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S151.9;S156.4+1

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国家自然科学基金项目(41971107)资助。


Prediction of Spatial Distribution of Soil Salinity Content in Yellow River Delta Based on Bayesian Maximum Entropy Model
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The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    黄河三角洲土壤盐渍化问题是制约当地农业生产和生态稳定的关键因素。为了准确掌握盐渍土的空间分布,提高土壤含盐量的空间预测精度,本研究根据2022年5月黄河三角洲的193个采样点两个深度土壤含盐量分析数据,结合高程和Landsat 9遥感影像等数据,采用地理加权回归(Geographically weighted regression,GWR)模型构造区间型软数据,进而建立贝叶斯最大熵(Bayesian maximum entropy,BME)模型对研究区土壤含盐量的分布进行了预测,并同传统的地统计模型普通克里格(Ordinary kriging,OK)及GWR模型的预测结果进行了比较。结果表明:BME模型对土壤含盐量的预测精度高于另外两种模型。与OK模型相比,BME模型的RMSE在土壤表层(0 ~ 30 cm)和底层(90 ~ 100 cm)分别降低25% 和21%,R2分别提高0.543 2和0.352 7。BME模型作为本研究最佳土壤含盐量空间预测模型,展现了多源数据整合及非线性估计的优势。黄河三角洲表层土壤盐渍化率(88%)高于底层(68%),土壤含盐量大体呈现由西南向东北递增的趋势,沿海地区大于内陆地区,黄河三角洲北部是整个区域盐渍化最为严重的地区。

    Abstract:

    Soil salinization in the Yellow River Delta (YRD) is a key factor restricting local agricultural productivity and ecological stability. In order to accurately grasp the spatial distribution of saline soils and improve the spatial prediction accuracy of soil salinity, based on measured soil salinity at 193 sampling points and two soil layers in the YRD in May, 2022, and data such as digital elevation model and Landsat 9 remote sensing imagery were combined, the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model was used to construct interval-type soft data, and then the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) model was established to predict the distribution of soil salinity in the study area, and finally the prediction results were compared with the traditional geographic statistical model Ordinary Kriging (OK) and the GWR model. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the BME model was higher than those of the other two models. Compared with OK, the prediction errors (RMSE) of BME in the soil surface (0–30 cm) and bottom (90–100 cm) layers were decreased by 25% and 21%, respectively, and the R2 were improved by 0.543 2 and 0.352 7, respectively. As the best spatial prediction model in this study, BME showed the advantages of multi-source data integration and nonlinear estimation. The salinization rate (88%) of the surface layer in the YRD was higher than that of the bottom layer (68%). Generally, soil salinity was increased from southwest to northeast, the coastal areas were more serious than the inland areas, and soil salinization was most prominent in the northern part of the YRD.

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杨清,范晓梅,王林林,唐影.基于贝叶斯最大熵的黄河三角洲土壤含盐量空间分布预测[J].土壤,2024,56(2):406-414. YANG Qing, FAN Xiaomei, WANG Linlin, TANG Ying. Prediction of Spatial Distribution of Soil Salinity Content in Yellow River Delta Based on Bayesian Maximum Entropy Model[J]. Soils,2024,56(2):406-414

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  • 收稿日期:2023-06-17
  • 最后修改日期:2023-09-17
  • 录用日期:2023-09-18
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-05-22
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