Abstract:This paper took Tuojiang River Basin as the research object, based on the remote sensing data from 2005 to 2020, from the perspective of landscape structure, using GIS and GeoDa software, and using the Land Stochastic Matrix to build a landscape land ecological risk assessment model, and analyzed the temporal and spatial changes of land ecological risk in the study area. The results indicate that: (1) Cultivated land is the landscape background value of the study area. Affected by natural and human factors, the area of cultivated land and forest land has decreased over the past 15 years, while the area of construction land, water bodies, grasslands, and unused land has increased. The newly added construction land area is the largest, with 91.95% coming from cultivated land, which is the main source of construction land. (2) The ecological risk index from 2005 to 2020 is calculated, and the Moran's I values are all positive. At a 99% confidence level, the significance test is passed, indicating that the ecological risk areas have a significant positive correlation in space and exhibit a spatial aggregation state. The "high-high" aggregation is the main aggregation mode of land ecological risk. (3) Over the past 15 years, in terms of spatial distribution, the low risk level has shown an overall trend of transferring to the middle and lower reaches. The research area is mainly composed of high-risk areas and higher-risk areas, which are concentrated in the mountainous areas in the upper reaches of the basin and the hilly areas in the middle and lower reaches, and accounting for 49.20% and 48.98% of the total area of the research area, respectively. From the trend of area change, the areas of low risk areas, lower risk areas, and medium risk areas have increased by 1122.91, 3581.10, and 21698.83 hm2 respectively year by year. The areas of higher risk areas have first increased and then decreased, with an overall increase of 582436.94 hm2. The areas of high risk areas have first decreased and then increased, with an overall decrease of 608839.78 hm2. The overall ecological risk of land use in the Tuojiang River Basin tends to weaken. Overall, except for a small amount of transformation from higher-risk areas to high-risk areas, most of the other areas are transferred from higher level risk areas to lower level risk areas. The transformation of risk areas is manifested as mutual transformation between adjacent levels, indicating that the ecological risk changes of land use in the Tuojiang River Basin are relatively stable and there are no areas with sharp changes.