Based on the analyses of the dynamic change of the cultivated land area from 1949 to 2004 in Dunhuang Oasis, this paper explored the factors which could affect cultivated land area with the method of Factor Analysis. The result showed that the agricultural modernization level, general population and their quality were three primary factors in the studied area. By establishing multiple linear regression model, the cultivated land area and general population of Dunhuang Oasis in 2010, 2015 and 2020 were predicated respectively, which could provide scientific bases for the sustainable utilization of cultivated land and sustainable agricultural development in the region.