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陕西省设施农林用地适宜性潜力预测研究
孙 昕1, 于东升2, 潘 月2, 徐志超2, 黄 标2, 李明阳1
1.南京林业大学林学院;2.土壤与农业可持续发展国家重点实验室(中国科学院南京土壤研究所)
摘要:
设施农林业是建设现代高效农林业的重点。掌握设施农林用地的潜力分布对高效农林业科学规划和合理布局具有指导意义。本研究以陕西省220个设施农林用地的地理分布点数据,结合10个生态环境因子,通过Maxent最大熵模型和ArcGIS软件的空间分析功能,对陕西省设施农林用地的适宜性潜力分布进行了预测,并分析了适宜性主导的环境因子。结果表明:①Maxent最大熵模型的预测精度较高,夜间灯光亮度、海拔、坡度、年平均降水量和年平均气温5个因子是影响设施农林适宜性潜力分布的主要环境因子;②陕西省设施农林用地的发展潜力由大到小的城市依次为渭南市、西安市、咸阳市、榆林市、汉中市、延安市、安康市、商洛市、宝鸡市、铜川市,位于关中地区的渭南市,发展潜力最大面积可达4.77×104 hm2,占该市常用耕地总面积的9.4%。
关键词:  设施农林业  适宜性概率  潜力分布  最大熵模型  陕西省
DOI:10.13758/j.cnki.tr.2019.02.022
分类号:S315;S626.5;S628
基金项目:陕西省科学院科技计划项目(2016K-07)、国家自然科学基金项目(41571206)及中国科学院科技服务网络计划(STS计划)项目资助。
Prediction of Potential Suitability Distribution for Facility Agriculture and Forestry Land in Shaanxi Province
SUN Xin1, YU Dongsheng2, PAN Yue2, XU Zhichao2, HUANG Biao2, LI Mingyang1
1.College of Forestry Nanjing Forestry University;2.State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Abstract:
As the focus of the construction of modern high-efficient agriculture and forestry, the potential distribution of facility agriculture and forestry can be a guide for its scientific planning and rational layout. Based on 220 geographical distribution sites data of facility agriculture and forestry in Shaanxi Province, together with 10 environment factors and the maximum entropy (Maxent) model and the ArcGIS spatial analysis platform, the potential distribution of facility agriculture and forestry in Shaanxi Province and its dominant environment factors were studied in this paper. The results showed that the evaluation Precision of the model is high, the night lights brightness data, elevation, slope, the average annual precipitation and the annual average temperature are the main environmental factors to affect the potential distribution of facility agriculture and forestry. The development potential of facility agriculture and forestry in Shaanxi Province is in an order of Weinan>Xi’an> Xianyang>Yulin>Hanzhong>Yan’an>Ankang>Shangluo>Baoji>Tongchuan. Among them, Weinan located in central Shaanxi Province has the greatest potential with an area of 4.77×104 hm2 hectares, accounting for 9.4% of the city’s total conventional arable land.
Key words:  Facility agriculture and forestry  Suitability probability  Potential distribution  Maximum entropy model (Maxent)  Shaanxi Province

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